Monday November 7 2022
As of the 5 AM report, the National Hurricane Center has officially named Nicole a subtropical storm. This is the same wind intensity as a tropical storm, this one measured at 45 mph winds. The difference is the structure which is a hybrid with cold core elements.
Nicole is forecast to intensify and might reach hurricane intensity when reaching the east coast of Florida by Wednesday or Thursday. It will be a large storm, with a large impact as it turns north up the east coast. Eventually spreading heavy rain into the Mid Atlantic by Friday.
https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.542.0_en.html#goog_65500481
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Conditions at 5 AM EST
From the National Hurricane Center
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
- LOCATION...25.5N 68.5W
- ABOUT 555 MI… E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH...75 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
Satellite Loop
Forecast Track/Cone
Latest projection from the National Hurricane Center using a blend of models. There is a one of uncertainty that allows for adjustment farther out in time as this interacts with the coast and other weather systems.
Tropical Storm Wind Arrival Time
Wednesday Evening is the expectation for much of Florida.
Model Forecast (GFS)
(From Tropical Tidbits)
This shows the storms taking a WIDE TURN by crossing into the Gulf of Mexico and then north up to the Mid Atlantic coast, exiting North Carolina on Saturday.
I expect there will be some adjustments…
Computer Model Forecasts
Intensity –
There is some support for this to become a hurricane before landfall.
The Home Insurance Guru 
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